Heating oil prices on Long Island: the weekly chart, this winter's outlook and what a fill costs

Long Island heating oil price today, and the ten-year chart

NYSERDA, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, surveys home heating oil dealers every week from September to March and every two weeks the rest of the year, and publishes the average for each region of the state. Long Island is its own region. The series starts in September 1997 and is published as open data on data.ny.gov, which is what the chart below reads.

In the survey of October 5, 2026 the Long Island average was $6.25 a gallon. The New York statewide average was $6.21 and New York City's was $6.39. Two weeks earlier, on September 21, Long Island reached $6.37, the second-highest reading since the survey began. Only May 16, 2022, at $6.46, was higher.

The chart shows the weekly Long Island average from September 2015, the average for each heating season and the latest surveys. It re-reads NYSERDA's dataset once a day, so the latest figure in the chart can be newer than the October 5 numbers in the text.

Why heating oil is so expensive this winter

Heating oil is a distillate fuel, close kin to diesel, so its price follows crude oil and the diesel market. EIA says that from the winter of 2012–13 through 2021–22, crude oil made up 48% of the price of a gallon of heating oil, distribution and marketing 37%, and refining 15%. When crude and diesel move, the gallon in your tank moves within weeks.

Both moved this year. On Long Island the jump started in March 2026: NYSERDA's average was $4.57 on March 2, $5.45 on March 9 and $6.01 on March 23. It eased to $4.69 by late June, then climbed back above $6 in September.

EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook of October 6, 2026 gives the reasons for this winter:

• Oil flows from the Middle East: EIA assumes they stay constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026, and it raised its Brent crude forecast to $105 a barrel for that quarter, $14 higher than a month earlier.
• Diesel is tight: EIA says extreme tightness in diesel markets adds pressure on crude. U.S. retail diesel averaged $6.29 a gallon in September.
• Stocks are low where Long Island buys: East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September, and EIA expects them to stay around 20% below the 2021–2025 average through this winter.
• The result, in EIA's words: homes that heat with oil "face heating oil prices that are up more than 30% from last winter". EIA expects their spending to rise 21%, a little less than the price, because it forecasts a milder Northeast winter.

Will heating oil prices go down?

EIA's forecast says yes, but not this winter. It expects Brent crude to fall from $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 to an average of $84 in 2027, and retail diesel to average about $4.50 a gallon next year. It expects East Coast distillate stocks to get close to their five-year average only in the second half of next year.

Two cautions. EIA finished this forecast on October 1, 2026, so it does not include later events, and it says attacks on oil infrastructure show the potential for continued volatility. The next outlook is due November 10, 2026. A forecast is not a price you can lock in, and nobody can promise where the Long Island average will be in January.

• If you buy oil on a cash-on-delivery basis, you pay the price on the day of delivery, so a falling market helps you and a rising one hurts.
• If you are offered a fixed or capped price plan by a dealer, compare its per-gallon price with the NYSERDA average in the chart before you sign.

What a Long Island winter of oil costs at today's price

EIA estimates that U.S. homes heating with oil will burn about 400 gallons this winter, 402 in its Winter Fuels Outlook table. Older or larger Long Island houses can burn far more, so the table also shows 600 and 800 gallons. The columns are last winter's Long Island average, the October 5 survey price, and 50 cents either side of it.

For a quick check: 100 gallons costs $625 at $6.25 a gallon, and every 50-cent move in the price changes a 400-gallon winter by $200. Your own number is on last winter's delivery receipts.

• EIA's own forecast for the average U.S. oil-heated home is $5.26 a gallon from November to March and $2,115 for the winter, 21% more than last winter. Long Island's survey average is already above that price.
• If your boiler also makes your hot water, part of your gallons are hot water, not space heat.

Is there a cheapest month to buy heating oil?

We checked NYSERDA's Long Island numbers for the ten full years from September 2015 to August 2025. September was the cheapest month in five of those ten years, but on average it was only about 3% below that year's average price. No month was reliably cheap, and every month's ten-year average sat within about 3% of the yearly average.

The market moves the price far more than the calendar does. In March 2026 the Long Island average went from $4.57 to $6.01 in three weeks. Filling up early in the season can help, but it is a bet on the market, not a rule.

NYSERDA's figure is an average of the dealers it surveys. Discount cash-on-delivery dealers often post lower prices: on October 21, 2026, HeatFleet's Long Island page listed $5.36 as its cheapest price. Ask each dealer for the price at the gallons you need and whether there is a minimum delivery or a small-delivery fee.

The same heat from a heat pump on PSEG Long Island rates

At $6.25 a gallon, the heat in one gallon of oil costs about $2.85 from a cold-climate heat pump on PSEG Long Island's Rate 580, or about $3.60 on the default time-of-day Rate 194. For a 400-gallon house that is about $1,140 or $1,440 of electricity a winter against $2,500 of oil.

How we got there: a gallon of heating oil holds 138,500 Btu (EIA); at 80% boiler efficiency that is 110,800 Btu of heat. A ducted cold-climate heat pump at NEEP's minimum, HSPF2 7.7, needs about 14.4 kWh to deliver it. Rate 580 charges $0.0585 a kWh for delivery above 400 kWh a month from October to May, plus October 2026's Power Supply Charge of $0.1392. Rate 194 assumes 15% of the heating kWh fall in the 3 to 7 PM weekday peak. The full math, with other gallon counts, is in our heat pump cost guide.

One catch decides the bigger number. PSEG Long Island's 2026 rate guide says Rate 580 applies to customers who heat the entire building solely with electric heat, while its heat pump FAQ says homes where the heat pump is the primary heat source may be eligible and describes it as a 40% delivery discount. If you plan to keep oil as backup, ask PSEG Long Island in writing which rate your account will be on.

The way off oil on PSEG Long Island's terms

PSEG Long Island pays a rebate on cold-climate heat pumps for single-family homes, one to four units, but only for whole-house projects. These are the terms on its rebate and FAQ pages, read on October 21, 2026.

• Rebate: $4,000 at market rate; $5,000 for moderate-income households (under 80% of area median income) or market-rate homes in a Disadvantaged Community; $7,500 for low-income households (under 60% of area median income).
• The heat pump system must meet 100 to 120% of the entire home's heating load, shown by a Manual J load calculation.
• You must use one of PSEG Long Island's participating contractors. Ask any installer, including us, to show their status before you sign.
• Keep the oil boiler or remove it: PSEG requires either integrated controls that make the heat pump the primary heat, or removal of the fossil-fuel system. Its FAQ suggests the backup run only when it is extremely cold, ideally below 15°F.
• Air-source units must be on the NEEP cold-climate list, and integrated controls must be listed on Mass Save, when the application is submitted.
• The federal energy efficiency tax credit (25C) covered heat pumps only for improvements made through December 31, 2025, so the PSEG rebate is the main incentive in 2026.

Burn fewer gallons this winter: insulation and air sealing

The cheapest gallon is the one you never buy. PSEG Long Island's Home Performance program is open to single-family homes heated by oil, gas, propane or electricity, so you do not have to switch fuels to use it. It starts with a free Whole House Energy Assessment: a check of insulation and drafts, a thermal scan and a blower door test. PSEG says the right improvements could save up to 20% on energy bills.

Sealing and insulating first also shrinks the heating load, which means a smaller, cheaper heat pump if you switch later.

• Amounts are PSEG Long Island's 2026 Home Performance rebate list, effective January 1, 2026. Work goes through a participating contractor.